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商业 - 科技

白领也危险了:5个正在被机器人夺走的“高大上”职业

Erik Sherman 2015年03月06日

一直到不久以前,受到机器人冲击的还主要是蓝领工作,尤其是装配线上的蓝领工人。但现在,人工智能、机器人和其它颠覆性的新技术正在挑战以前貌似不容易被取代的白领工作,比如:金融和体育记者、麻醉师、外科医生、律师助理、金融分析师等。

    麻醉师、外科医生、诊断医师

    你可能觉得,医生是一门需要实际操作经验的职业,因此医生是不可能被机器人取代的,但事实也并非如此。强生公司的Sedasys系统目前已经通过了FDA认证,可以在结肠镜检查等手术中实施低层次的麻醉术,它的成本还不到专业麻醉师的零头。一名医生在发挥人力因素的同时,还可以同时管理多台机器。

    IBM的Watson系统由于在电视真人秀上大放异彩而广为人知。不过很多人可能不知道,它在肺癌的诊断上拥有远远高于人类医生的诊断准确率——在某些测试中,Watson系统与人类医师的诊断准确率为90%对50%。原因是数据。要想读完最新发布的医疗数据,人类医师每周至少要花费160小时的时间,因此人类医生不可能掌握全部的新见解甚至临床证据,因此面对计算机时也就丧失了诊断方面的优势。

    外科医生已经在使用自动化系统辅助进行一些低侵入性的手术。目前虽然还是医生负责手术的全过程,但终有一日,机器有可能独立完成一些难度较低的手术。事实已经证明,机器人系统具有将肿瘤从人体组织剥离的能力。另外目前市面上已经有了至少一款用于进行毛发移植的机器人,使一名医生在进行手术的同时可以监控多个规程。

    亨特登医疗中心(Hunterdon Medical Center)的机器人手术服务医学总监普罗帕•高希表示:“我们以前用手工完成的很多事,现在已经通过机器人实现了自动化。比如现在我们不再手工缝合刀口,而是使用机器人缝合。”高希表示,由于解剖结构的变异,加上目前电脑在归纳模式上还存在一定难度,她目前还无法预测机器能够如何充分完成自动化的手术。不过她补充道:“十年以前,我也绝对不会预见到这些东西发挥作用,所以很多说未来会发展成什么样。”

    Anesthesiologists, Surgeons, and Diagnosticians

    You might think that doctors represented the ultimate in hands-on expertise that had to be local, but that isn't the case. Johnson & Johnson's Sedasys system, already FDA approved, can automate delivery of low-level anesthesiain applications like colonoscopies at the fraction of the cost of a dedicated anesthesiologist. A doctor can supervise multiple machines at the same time to keep the human element.

    IBM's Watson, well known for its stellar performance in the TV game show Jeopardy!, has already demonstrated a far more accurate diagnosis rate for lung cancers than humans -- 90 percent versus 50 percent in some tests. The reason is data. Keeping pace with the release of medical data could take doctors 160 hours a week, so doctors can't possibly review the amount of new insights or even bodies of clinical evidence that can give an edge in making a diagnosis.

    Surgeons already use automated systems to aid in low-invasive procedures. Right now, the doctor is in charge, but eventually machines might do simpler procedures themselves. According to Beane, there have already been demonstrations -- on Silly Putty -- of how a robotic system could potentially remove tumors from tissue. There is also at least one hair transplant robot on the market, allowing one surgeon to oversee multiple procedures at the same time.

    "A lot of things we do manually we have automated through robotics," said Dr. Propa Ghosh, medical director of robotics surgical services at Hunterdon Medical Center. "Instead of using sutures, now we're using robotic staplers." She finds it hard to see how machines could do fully automated surgeries because of anatomical variations and the current difficulty computers have in generalizing patterns. However, Ghosh added, "I never could have predicted have the things that have come to play ten years ago, so it's hard to say where the future will be."

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