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商业 - 科技

2015年五大科技趋势

Verne Kopytoff 2015年01月27日

2015年究竟会成为技术革新年,还是技术进化年?今年,苹果手表将闪亮登场;一些初创公司估值泡沫终将破裂;苹果支付将成为移动支付业进入主流的最后机会;黑客还将大行其道,估计他们又会祸害另一家《财富》500强企业。好消息是,温馨的智能家居有望进入千家万户。

    初创公司估值泡沫将破裂

    每隔几周,都会有一家亏本的初创公司得到投资者的天价估值。图片社交网站Pinterest被估价50亿美元,数字支付公司Square被估价60亿美元,照片信息服务Snapchat甚至得到高达100亿美元的估价。今年该是泡沫破裂之时了。门罗风投公司的风险投资家温基•加纳森表示:“今年将会有许多引人注目的初创公司跌下神坛。”预测技术业泡沫将何时破裂,是硅谷专家们最爱玩的游戏。尽管过去几年有过许多悲观预言,但初创公司的估值依旧节节攀升。加纳森所在的公司投资了打车服务商Uber(估值410亿美元)等雄心勃勃的公司。他说,现在的势头促使投资者进一步推高那些还没有站稳脚跟的公司的估值,这就像在玩抢椅子游戏,到最后肯定会有投资者损失一大笔钱,有的现在已经亏本了。电子商务初创公司Fab曾经得到过10亿美元的估值,却在2014年崩溃,这也许昭示着未来的景象。(门罗也是Fab的投资者。)不过,加纳森也表示,拥有真正优秀业务的初创公司依旧能得到很高的估值,至于其他公司,好吧,“当事态不妙时,没有人会通知记者的。”

    Start-up valuation bubble springs some leaks

    Every few weeks, a money-losing start-up gets a sky-high valuation from investors. Pinterest, the online bulletin board, gets a $5 billion valuation. Digital payments company Square is priced at a hefty $6 billion. Meanwhile, Snapchat, the photo messaging service, gets an even bigger $10 billion valuation. This year, look for some air to go out of the bubble. "There will be some really high-profile blow ups," says Venky Ganesan, a venture capitalist with Menlo Ventures. Timing when the tech industry will deflate is a favorite Silicon Valley parlor game. Despite dire predictions over the past few years, startups keep rising in value. Ganesan, whose firm has invested in high-fliers like ride hailing service Uber ($41 billionvaluation), says momentum is pushing investors to bid up valuations in shaky businesses like a game of musical chairs. In the end, some investors will lose a lot of money, he says, if they haven't already. Fab, an e-commerce startup that had a valuation over $1 billion before imploding in 2014, may be a sign of things to come. (Menlo was an investor.) Still, Ganesan says that companies that have a real business will continue to command high prices. As for the others, well, "No one is calling reporters when bad news is happening," he says.

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