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《财富》水晶球:2014全球大事预测

《财富》水晶球:2014全球大事预测

Ryan Bradley, Geoff Colvin, Catherine Dunn, Leigh Gallagher, Stephen Gandel, Miguel Helft, Jessi Hempel, Marty Jones, Adam Lashinsky, JP Mangalindan, Megan McCarthy, Tory Newmyer, Jennifer Reingold, Daniel Roberts, Alex Taylor, Shawn Tully, and Jen Wieczner 2014-01-08
新的一年会不会爆出更大规模的监控丑闻?苹果会不会推出堪与iPod、iPhone、iPad比肩的重磅新产品?北极资源争夺战会不会擦枪走火?电动汽车会不会大流行?比特币能否进入主流?……新年到来之际,《财富》预测了2014年可能会发生的重大事件。

    燃料电池轿车将亮相汽车展

    现代公司( Hyundai)将在今年春天推出美国第一辆商用燃料电池汽车:氢气驱动,排气管只排放水的Tucson紧凑型跨界车。Tucson燃料电池汽车(见上图)一次性行驶里程为300英里,可在几分钟内完成加气,将以每月499美元的价格对外出租——但由于全美的氢气基础设施有限,这项政策最初只面向南加州地区。2014年年底,丰田( Toyota )将成为第二家推出这类轿车的公司。本田汽车(Honda)也将于2015年跟进。通用汽车(General Motors)已经动用119辆雪佛兰Equinox燃料电池跨界车累计测试了300万英里,但目前还不打算让它正式上市。预计新任CEO玛丽•芭拉也会感受到氢气散发的热度。

    概率: 98% - 100%。

    Fuel-cell cars will hit the show room floor

    The first commercial fuel-cell vehicle will be launched in the U.S. this spring by Hyundai: a Tucson compact crossover powered by hydrogen that emits only water from its tailpipe. The fuel-cell Tucson (above) has a range of 300 miles, can be refueled in a matter of minutes, and will lease for $499 a month -- though at first only in Southern California because of the limited hydrogen infrastructure nationwide. Toyota (TM) will be next (in late 2014). Honda (HMC) will follow suit in 2015. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500)has racked up 3 million test miles with a fleet of 119 Chevrolet Equinox fuel-cell crossovers but has no plans to market one. Count on new CEO Mary Barra to feel the hydrogen heat.

    Odds: 98% - 100%.

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