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《财富》水晶球:2014全球大事预测

《财富》水晶球:2014全球大事预测

Ryan Bradley, Geoff Colvin, Catherine Dunn, Leigh Gallagher, Stephen Gandel, Miguel Helft, Jessi Hempel, Marty Jones, Adam Lashinsky, JP Mangalindan, Megan McCarthy, Tory Newmyer, Jennifer Reingold, Daniel Roberts, Alex Taylor, Shawn Tully, and Jen Wieczner 2014-01-08
新的一年会不会爆出更大规模的监控丑闻?苹果会不会推出堪与iPod、iPhone、iPad比肩的重磅新产品?北极资源争夺战会不会擦枪走火?电动汽车会不会大流行?比特币能否进入主流?……新年到来之际,《财富》预测了2014年可能会发生的重大事件。

    AT&T将与沃达丰合并

    关于美国电信巨头AT&T有可能与英国沃达丰公司( Vodafone)合并的谣言已经流传了10年左右。尽管2004年的交易以失败告终,但今年9月份,在沃达丰同意将其持有威瑞森( Verizon)45%的股权回售给这家公司(许多人认为这是沃达丰在寻求与AT&T合并交易前必须完成的步骤之一,AT&T是仅次于威瑞森的美国第二大电信公司)之后,这种传言再次甚嚣尘上。据说AT&T有意在2014年收购欧洲的电信公司,并且悄悄地盯上了沃达丰,但这两家公司还没有确认这个消息。电信业的进一步兼并整合——有报道称斯普林特公司(Sprint )正在追逐德国电信公司(T-Mobile)——使得这桩合并交易变得更加可能。

    概率: 75%。

    AT&T will merge with Vodafone

    Rumors have been swirling for a decade about a possible merger between American telecom giant AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and its British counterpart Vodafone (VOD). But while a 2004 deal fell apart, speculation intensified again this past September after Vodafone agreed to sell its 45% stake in Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) back to that company. (Many view that as a needed step before Vodafone can pursue a deal with AT&T, the second-largest telecom firm in the U.S. after Verizon.) AT&T has expressed interest in European acquisitions in 2014 and is quietly eyeing Vodafone, according to news reports, though neither company will confirm it. Further consolidation in the telecom industry -- as with reports that Sprint (S, Fortune 500) is pursuing T-Mobile (TMUS) -- could make a deal more likely.

    Odds: 75%.

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