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《财富》水晶球:2014全球大事预测

新的一年会不会爆出更大规模的监控丑闻?苹果会不会推出堪与iPod、iPhone、iPad比肩的重磅新产品?北极资源争夺战会不会擦枪走火?电动汽车会不会大流行?比特币能否进入主流?……新年到来之际,《财富》预测了2014年可能会发生的重大事件。

    百威英博将收购吉尼斯

    2013年,这家总部位于比利时、由巴西人执掌的全球最大啤酒公司收购了莫德洛集团(Grupo Modelo),科罗娜( Corona)由此成为百威英博(Anheuser-Busch InBev )旗下全球知名啤酒品牌系列【包括百威(Budweiser)、贝克(Becks)和时代(Stella Artois)】的新成员。谁又将成为它的下一个目标呢?许多分析师不愿做出记录在案的猜测,但有一位分析师表示,“与百威英博、南非酿酒集团(SAB)或喜力公司(Heineken)相比,目前还没有被它们纳入囊中的公司太小了,几乎都是这几家行业巨头嘴边的猎物。”那么,为什么要收购吉尼斯(Guinness)?在那些还不属于三巨头的啤酒品牌中,吉尼斯或许是最具代表性的一家。尽管吉尼斯的所有者、专注于烈性酒业务的帝亚吉欧酒业集团(Diageo)表示有意继续持有这一烈性啤酒品牌,但只要价格合适,估计帝亚吉欧还是会愿意出售的。对并购问题向来守口如瓶的百威英博CEO卡洛斯•布里托坚称,他的公司将全身心地经营已经拥有的品牌,但在百威英博准备吞下科罗娜之前,他也说过类似的话。

    概率: 24%。

    Anheuser-Busch InBev will buy Guinness

    In 2013 the Belgium-based, Brazilian-managed, biggest beer company in the world bought up Grupo Modelo, adding Corona to its portfolio of globally recognized brews such as Budweiser, Becks, and Stella Artois. What next? Analysts won't go on record speculating, but, says one, "the big companies are so much bigger than the small ones that anything not owned by ABI, SAB, or Heineken is pretty much up for grabs." So why Guinness? It may be the most iconic brand of those not owned by one of the big three. Guinness's owner, Diageo, which focuses mostly on spirits, has said it wants to keep the popular stout. But if the price is right, expect Diageo to sell. ABI (BUD) CEO Carlos Brito is famously cagey about M&A and insists that his company will focus on the brands it already has -- but he said the same thing right before he moved on Corona.

    Odds: 24%.

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