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商业 - 科技

黑莓信徒归来

Kevin Kelleher 2013年06月21日

苦苦挣扎的黑莓气数已尽?一群分析师和投资者发声称:没这回事!在他们看来,黑莓最黑暗的日子已经过去了。黑莓推出的最新款智能手机销量虽然拼不过苹果和三星,但已经超出了预期;黑莓的股价虽然只是巅峰时期的一个零头,但已经开始回升。而且,不管怎么样,大家现在又开始聊黑莓了。

    有些人则反潮流而行之,相信黑莓会东山再起。他们并不是丧失了理智,他们认为黑莓的下一步反攻行动近在眼前。而且他们很愿意跟人分享他们的道理。

    法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的分析师安迪•帕金斯就是一个例子。上周他发表了一份研究报告,虽然这份报告也许和黑莓股价上涨6%并无直接关系。他雄辩地宣称,没人真正知道黑莓手机到底卖掉了多少台,而他给出的数字听起来颇令人振奋:本季度销售了400万台,较之上季度的100万台大幅增长。而基于Q10和Z10在英国刚上市时的销量,他写道:“(黑莓)手机的销售比我们先前预期的要快。”

    的确,这点销量只是iPhone和Galaxy本季度预期销量3,000万台的一个零头,但它确实也能表明,在这场残酷的竞赛中,黑莓还算能放手一搏。当然,没人会指望它现在就能力压群雄。但能与群狼共舞,它也算干得不赖了。

    尽管帕金斯也知道,在华尔街的眼里,他的判断方法并不那么准确,但他还是大胆地把黑莓的股票评级从“卖出”升级为“买入”,同时把目标价从13美元调高到了17美元。

    仅仅一天之后,富国银行(Wells Fargo)的梅纳德•乌就加入进来,表示支持帕金斯。梅纳德•乌重申了他对黑莓所持的“买入”评级,同时表示黑莓手机销量良好,足以支撑其获得高于华尔街预期的营收。紧接着就是在消费者新闻与商业电视频道(CNBC)上展开了一场激烈的多空辩论。辩论中,看多一方展开了几个季度以来最有力的论证,同时一些独立观察家也做了分析,他们甚至为了证明黑莓正在王者归来而不惜拍桌子。

    当然,看空一方的论据也很充分(周三,黑莓股价就因为另一个降级评级而下挫3%。这个评级来自贝恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research),它认为对黑莓业绩复苏的预期过高)。但值得关注的是,大家正为黑莓的未来争得不可开交。一年前这种情景还难以想象。一方面,确实很难说这家公司能恢复往日的辉煌。但另一方面,正是这些情绪激烈的辩论有时候会表明某支股票正在经历复苏。

    黑莓确实已从近期的低谷中有所恢复,但要回到它曾经的高度却有很长的路要走。这场逆袭大戏本身不会太精彩,只是这家公司的拥趸们现在又回来了。不管大家对这家公司的前景抱有什么看法,这个发展过程本身就值得关注。(财富中文网)

    译者:清远

    Against this tide rides the return of the BlackBerry believer. Some people -- maybe not-so-crazy people -- think this company has a second act ahead. And they have some arguments they'd like you to hear.

    Take Andy Perkins, an analyst with Société Générale. Last week, he sent out a research not that sent BlackBerry's stock rising 6%. He started off with an equivocating assertion that no one really knows how many BlackBerry phones are being bought, but his count suggested something encouraging: Four million this quarter, up from 1 million a quarter earlier. Based on early U.K. sales of the Q10 and Z10, "handset sales have been faster than we previously assumed," he wrote.

    Yes, that's a fraction of the 30 million-plus units of iPhones and Galaxy phones expected to be sold this quarter, but it also shows that BlackBerry is still a horse in this cutthroat sweepstakes. No, no one expects it to lead right now. But hell, it's doing a fine job just riding with the herd.

    Although Perkins saw his metrics as uncertain by Wall Street terms, he took the bold step of upgrading BlackBerry's stock to Buy from Sell and raising his price target to $17 a share from $13 a share.

    A day later, Maynard Um of Wells Fargo weighed in, supporting Perkins. Um reiterated his Buy rating and said that sales of BlackBerry units were selling well enough to justify higher earnings than the Street was expecting. All that follows a bull-versus-bear debate on CNBC where the bulls made the company's strongest case in quarters, as well as analysis among independentobservers, who have been pounding the table for a BlackBerry comeback.

    Of course, bears remain vocal too. (The stock is down 3% today on another downgrade, this time from Bernstein Research warning that expectations were getting too hopeful). But what's significant about BlackBerry is that there is an argument going on about its future. Even that was hard to imagine a year ago. On the one hand, yes it's hard to say this company will return to its former glory. On the other, it's just these kinds of clashes of sentiment that can sometimes signal a turnaround in a stock.

    BlackBerry has come back from its recent lows, but it has far to go to even begin to approach its highs. That itself wouldn't be remarkable, except that the company's believers have come back. Whatever you think about this company's prospects, that development deserves some consideration.

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