华尔街无视“财政悬崖”

    老样子。华尔街总是无视坏消息，直到一切为时已晚。随后，恐慌情绪就会蔓延。此次“财政悬崖”可能也不例外。

    一项最新调查显示，93%的华尔街一线策略师和经济学家们在进行2013年的预测时仍然没有考虑明年1月1日将显现的加税减支效应。问题是，这是因为华尔街是对阻止财政悬崖胸有成竹，还是仅仅因为无知？

    “显然，很大一部分华尔街人士认为，我们不会坠落财政悬崖，”“蓝筹经济指数”（Blue Chip Economic Indicators）的编辑兰德尔•穆尔称。“这种观点可能比较乐观，但他们就是这样预测的。”在业界颇有名气的华尔街策略师月度调查就是由Blue Chip Economic Indicators主持进行的。

    确实，我们有理由相信能避免最糟糕的情形。日前，《财富》杂志（FORTUNE）报道，白宫早已提出一项计划，将把一些减支措施延迟6个月实施。年入25万美元以下的个人加税可能会再往后推一年。从近年的情况看，华盛顿可能会在最后一刻达成某种协议。

    但如果真的出现财政悬崖，华尔街可能毫无心理准备。上上周，我写了一篇文章，谈到美国银行（Bank of America）首席美国策略师伊森•哈里斯认为，财政悬崖的不确定性可能很快就会对经济构成拖累，这种影响可能最快今年年底就会显现。他说，大多数经济学家都错误地认为，直到明年之前，财政悬崖都不会影响美国经济。但即便是这种观点，可能也还是过于乐观。

    接受蓝筹调查的52位经济学家中，绝大部分表示，他们在预测时假定布什时期的部分或全部减税措施将得以延期。调查没有涉及减支问题，但增税是可能造成明年财政悬崖效应的主因，占比高达80%。

    总的来说，蓝筹的调查显示，华尔街策略师们预计2013年上半年美国经济剔除通胀将增长2.3%。上月，美国国会预算办公室（the Congressional Budget Office）表示，如果出现财政悬崖，美国经济可能陷入衰退，2013年上半年GDP下降1.3%。

    但这样的预测可能仍属乐观。美国国会预算办公室预计，财政悬崖将导致明年上半年美国经济放缓6.6个百分点。换言之，如果没有财政悬崖，美国经济明年上半年可能增长5.3%。相比2012年第一季度1.9%的增幅无疑是一大飞跃。但即便是Blue Chip调查中最乐观的经济学家也认为明年经济增速最高不会超过3.4%。

    假如华尔街的普遍预期是准确的，明年上半年我们可能看到经济衰退，GDP下降4.3%。相比近年来的三次经济衰退，它可能比前两次的情形还要糟糕，但比最近一次好一些。总之，如果真的出现财政悬崖，华尔街的预期会出现巨大的下行空间。市场也同样如此。

    译者：早稻米

    Here we go again. Wall Street has a history of not focusing on bad news until it's too late. Then panic ensues. We might be seeing that pattern again with the so-called fiscal cliff.

    A recent survey found that 93% of top Wall Street strategists and economists still aren't factoring into their estimates for next year the epic mix of tax increases and spending cuts that are expected to kick in January 1. The question is whether Wall Street is correctly handicapping the fiscal cliff, or just being ignorant.

    "It's clear that a large percentage of Wall Street doesn't expect us to go over the fiscal cliff," says Randell Moore, who is the editor of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators, which runs the highly regarded monthly survey of Wall Street strategists. "That may be optimistic, but that's their forecast."

    Indeed, there is good reason to believe we will avoid the worst. Yesterday, FORTUNE reportedthat the White House is already floating a plan that would delay some of the spending cuts for six months. The tax increases for individuals making less than $250,000 could be put off for another year. And recent history suggests that some kind of last minute deal will be struck in Washington.

    But if the fiscal cliff does happen, it appears it will be a surprise to Wall Street. Last week, I wrote a story on how Ethan Harris, the top U.S. strategist at Bank of America, thinks the fiscal cliff, because of uncertainty, could start to be a drag on the economy as soon as later this year. Most economists, he said, are wrongly assuming the fiscal cliff won't impact the economy until next year. But even that doesn't appear to be the case.

    The vast majority of the 52 economists polled by Blue Chip newsletter said that their estimates assume that some or all of the Bush-era tax cuts would be extended. Blue Chip's editor Moore didn't ask about spending cuts. But tax increases will account for 80% of the impact of the fiscal cliff next year.

    In all, Wall Street strategists, according to the Blue Chip survey, believe the U.S. economy, before inflation, will grow 2.3% in the first half of 2013. Last month, the Congressional Budget Office said that if the fiscal cliff happens, it's likely that the economy will fall into recession, with GDP declining 1.3% in the first half of the year.

    Even that, though, might be optimistic. The CBO believes the fiscal cliff will cause the economy to slow by 6.6 percentage points in the first half of next year. That means the CBO is predicting that without the fiscal cliff the economy is likely to grow 5.3% in the first half of the year. That would be a huge jump from the first quarter of 2012, when the economy expanded 1.9%. Even the most exuberant economist in Blue Chip's survey thinks growth will top out at 3.4% next year.

    Assume Wall Street's consensus is accurate, and we could be looking at a recession in the first half of next year in which the GDP drops -4.3%, which would be worse than two of the last three recessions, though not as bad as the most recent. Bottom line: If we do go over the fiscal cliff, Wall Street's expectations have a long way to fall. The market may too.