华尔街应回归简单

    上周，我们对Virtual投资组合做了几项简单调整，现在需要告知读者我们的最新头寸：

    1. 通过交易所交易基金GREK做空希腊——随着希腊债务重组的“积极”利好成为明日黄花，如今希腊股市必须面对紧缩的压力以及国民的纷纷出逃。

    2. 通过交易所交易基金SPY做空标准普尔500指数——在我们的超买线上卖出标准普尔500指数，有很高的历史成功率，在1,401点的点位上标准普尔500指数已经超买了。是的，就这么简单。

    3. 通过交易所交易基金XLY做空可选消费品——油价和通胀的持续上涨不利于经济增长和可选消费品消费。从历史数据看，当用油成本升至GDP的5.5%时，经济增速放缓。简单说，布伦特原油价格为116美元，相当于用油成本占GDP的5.5%；而如今的布伦特原油价格已经高达123美元。

    一如美国著名诗人亨利•沃兹沃思•朗费罗所言，“无论是个性、方式和风格，还是其他所有事物，最高境界都是简单。”确实如此。

    Last week, we made a couple of simple moves in the Virtual Portfolio that should inform you on our current positioning:

   1. Shorted Greece via the ETF GREK – With "positive" catalyst of the Greek debt restructuring in the rear view mirror, Greek equities now have to deal with austerity headwinds and a population that is leaving Greece en masse.

    2. Shorted SP500 via the ETF SPY – Selling the SP500 at our overbought line has a high historical batting average and at 1,401, the SP500 is overbought. Yes, it can be that simple.

    3. Shorted consumer discretionary via the ETF XLY – With oil prices and inflation accelerating, this isn't good for growth or discretionary spending. Historically, growth slows when oil reaches 5.5% of GDP. Simplistically, a Brent oil price of $116 equates to 5.5% GDP and Brent is currently at $123.

    Henry Wadsworth Longfellow also had a great quote about simplicity, which was: "In character, in manner, in style, in all things, the supreme excellence is simplicity." Indeed.